tree associates
FCC Carbon Intelligence Platform
TAL-PLAYBOOK-FCC-001 · April 2026
30
Companies
82.7 Mt
FCC CO₂/yr
74.4 Mt
Capturable
Total FCC CO₂
82.7 Mt/yr
Across 30 tracked companies
Capturable @ 90%
74.4 Mt/yr
With Tree Capture technology
Annual credit value saved
—
At current carbon prices
European FCC units
40–50
25–40 Mt CO₂/yr collectively
Feasibility study
€425k
Per engagement · 2–3 concurrent
CCS status — all 30 companies
Active CCS
6
Pilot / planned
10
No CCS
14
47% have no CCS programme — ~38 Mt/yr unaddressed FCC emissions
FCC CO₂ by region (Mt/yr)
Top 15 emitters by FCC CO₂
The unabatable problem
FCC coke combustion CO₂ is a chemical process necessity. Green hydrogen, fuel switching, and energy efficiency cannot eliminate it. Carbon capture is the only solution.
Infrastructure timing
Northern Lights Phase 2 FID: March 2025 (5 Mt/yr). Porthos and Antwerp@C operational. The storage infrastructure is ready — the capture isn't.
2030 deadline pressure
Feasibility → pre-FEED → pilot → FEED → FID takes years. Studies not commissioned in 2026 are unlikely to reach FID before 2030.
Source: Tree Associates FCC Playbook TAL-PLAYBOOK-FCC-001 (Apr 2026), EPA GHGRP, EU ETS Registry, company ESG/sustainability reports 2022–2024. All figures indicative.
| Company ↕ | Market | TAL tier | CCS status | FCC CO₂ Mt/yr ↕ | Captured Mt/yr ↕ | Credit saved/yr ↕ | Capture cost/yr ↕ | Net saving/yr ↕ | Initiative |
|---|
Tier 1 rows are Tree Associates priority accounts per TAL-PLAYBOOK-FCC-001. Net saving = carbon credit value avoided minus capture opex. Does not include capex, EU Innovation Fund grants, or IRA 45Q credits.
Tier 1 vs Tier 2 — FCC CO₂ comparison (Mt/yr)
Outreach channel intelligence — updated 1 April 2026
| Company | Channel | Contact level | Intelligence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shell | Head of CCUS | Email confirmed effective. Porthos proximity creates internal urgency. | In progress | |
| TotalEnergies | Email + LinkedIn | VP Decarbonisation | Primary conversion target. Titan/Dunkirk creates urgency. | Priority |
| ExxonMobil | LinkedIn only | VP/SVP Decarbonisation | Cold email bounced. LinkedIn via mutual connections is the only channel. | Not started |
| BP | LinkedIn only | Net Zero Teesside team | Cold email bounced. Entry via Net Zero Teesside. | Not started |
| Repsol | Head of CCUS | Email works. 5 Spain sites = ~2 Mt/yr opportunity. | In progress |
Price & capture assumptions
EU ETS carbon price (€/t)€68
US carbon price ($/t)$32
LatAm carbon price ($/t)$10
Tree Capture — capture rate90%
Capture cost (€/t CO₂)€55
FCC flue gas (10–18 vol% CO₂) enables lower capture costs than gas turbine streams (~3–4%). Breakeven is where capture cost equals carbon price.
Net saving per company (€M/yr)
CO₂ concentration — FCC
10–18%
vs. 3–4% in gas turbines
Target capture rate
90%
Of gross FCC regenerator CO₂
Indicative capture cost
€30–80/t
Lower due to high concentration
Feasibility study
€425k
Not a deployment commitment
Demonstrator
IFCEM
Cement kiln application
High-concentration advantage
FCC flue gas at 10–18 vol% CO₂ is 3–5× more concentrated than gas turbine exhaust. Smaller absorbers, lower energy penalty, and reduced capex per tonne captured.
Unabatable source — only solution
FCC coke combustion CO₂ cannot be eliminated by green hydrogen, fuel switching, or efficiency programmes. Tree Capture is the only viable pathway for this 20–35% of refinery Scope 1+2 emissions.
EU ETS credit generation
CO₂ stored in permitted geological storage directly avoids EU ETS allowance purchases. At €68/t, Shell Pernis alone avoids ~€68M/yr — strong IRR case, reinforced by EU Innovation Fund grants.
Infrastructure is ready now
Northern Lights Phase 2 FID: March 2025. Porthos and Antwerp@C clusters operational in the ARA region. First-movers secure injection slots ahead of competitors.
Continuous steady-state operation
FCC regeneration runs 24/7 with stable, predictable flue gas — unlike batch processes. Capture plant utilisation rates of 90%+, maximising tonnes captured and improving project IRR.
2030 critical path item
Feasibility → pre-FEED → pilot → FEED → FID takes years. Studies not commissioned in 2026 are unlikely to reach FID before 2030. The €425k feasibility is the critical path first step.
IRA 45Q — US market
The US IRA 45Q credit ($85/t for geological storage) materially improves FCC CCS economics for American refiners — strong ROI even at lower US voluntary carbon prices.
CBAM narrows the window
The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism tightens the window for non-EU operators outside the EU ETS. CBAM scope expansion creates growing urgency.
Career-advancing win for the buyer
The CCUS lead who brings Tree Capture to attention first gets the win. The worst outcome: a competitor refiner deploys first and management asks "Why didn't we look at this?"
2026 pipeline targets
Q2 2026
Tier 1 researched: 5/5
Outreach sent: 3
Conversations held: 1
Proposals issued: 1
Studies contracted: 0–1
Outreach sent: 3
Conversations held: 1
Proposals issued: 1
Studies contracted: 0–1
Q3 2026
Outreach sent: 5
Conversations held: 2–3
Proposals issued: 1–2
Studies contracted: 1
LinkedIn posts: 6–8
Conversations held: 2–3
Proposals issued: 1–2
Studies contracted: 1
LinkedIn posts: 6–8
Q4 2026
Outreach sent: 5
Conversations held: 3–4
Proposals issued: 2–3
Studies contracted: 2–3
LinkedIn posts: 6–8
Conversations held: 3–4
Proposals issued: 2–3
Studies contracted: 2–3
LinkedIn posts: 6–8
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